The effect of sample size and cognitive strategy on probability estimation bias.

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The Effect of Sample Size and Cognitive Strategy on Probability Estimation Bias

Probability estimation is an essential cognitive function in perception, motor control, and decision making. Many studies have shown that when making decisions in a stochastic operant conditioning task, people and animals behave as if they underestimate the probability of rare events. It is commonly assumed that this behavior is a natural consequence of estimating a probability from a small s...

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Decision

سال: 2015

ISSN: 2325-9973,2325-9965

DOI: 10.1037/dec0000027